The median selling price rose 16% for the week ending Jan. 9 from the same week in 2021 to $365,000 nationwide. Price increases follow the pattern of 2021 and late 2020, with supply woefully insufficient compared to demand.

“The stage is now set for the most competitive January housing market in recorded history,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement. “Buyers are flocking to the market to claim a home before mortgage rates rise further as new listings slow. The conditions are becoming increasingly difficult for first-time buyers, who will have to compete with more experienced buyers who are ready to do anything to win.

However, Fairweather predicts that once mortgage rates hit 3.6%, competition will slow to levels similar to late 2018.

The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts that rates for a 30-year fixed rate loan will reach 3.5% during the second quarter of 2022 and rise to 3.7% during the third quarter. The association predicts that rates will reach 4% by the end of 2022.

The number of active listings, which refers to all homes listed for sale at any time during a specific period, fell 28% for the four-week period ending January 9 compared to those same weeks. in 2021, according to Redfin. New listings are generally weaker during the holiday season, but Redfin’s report found that new home-for-sale listings were even lower this year, down 11% for the four weeks ending Jan. compared to those same weeks in 2021.

In further indications of a rapidly changing competitive market, Redfin found that 29% of homes under contract in the four-week period ending January 9 had an offer accepted within a week of going on the market. , compared to 25% during the same period in 2021.

The share of homes that were under contract in the first two weeks after going on the market was 39%, up from 34% in 2021. Additionally, 41% of homes sold in the four-week period ending on January 9 sold above. their asking price, up from 33% during this period in 2021.